Statsguru: Does former CEA Subramanian has his facts right on GDP numbers?

Statsguru: Does former CEA Subramanian has his facts right on GDP numbers?

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Final week, former chief financial advisor Arvind Subramanian wrote in a analysis paper that India’s gross home product


really grew at four.5 per cent (actual) in 2011-17, quite than the 6.9 per cent development seen in official authorities numbers.



Subramanian contends in his paper that actual sector indicators present a substantial slowing down within the reference interval (2011-12 to 2016-17). Whereas he analysed 17 totally different indicators excluding tax development, a cursory have a look at six indicators together with taxes exhibits that these areas did expertise slowdown within the six-year interval.


Development in financial institution credit score progressively got here down from 17 per cent to start with of the reference interval to eight per cent on the finish. Trade credit score development contracted within the final 12 months of the interval. Within the six prior years, credit score development ranged between 15 and 40 per cent, exhibits Chart 1. Commerce contracted in absolute phrases, with exports shedding a tenth and imports dropping 20 per cent, present Charts 2 and three. Low oil costs exacerbated it in 2015-16.


Annual development in electrical energy consumption remained 5-Eight per cent within the reference interval, decrease than the speed at which it grew within the earlier six years, reveals Chart four. The subsequent graphic (Chart 5) exhibits that vehicles, two-wheelers and business automobiles too have been produced at a slower price.


Taxes collected by the Centre and states grew by 10-17 per cent within the reference interval, slower than earlier six years generally, exhibits Chart 6. Nonetheless, tax-GDP ratio improved marginally. This proves an overestimation within the official numbers or not is one other query!


StatsGuru is a weekly characteristic. Each Monday, Enterprise Customary guides you thru the numbers it’s essential know to make sense of the headlines | Compiled by BS Analysis Bureau

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